\n<\/p>\n
The last time President Trump faced a midterm election, in 2018, congressional Republicans were dragged down by his unpopularity and lost more than three dozen House seats.<\/p>\n
But even in defeat, the bottom never truly fell out for the Republicans that year \u2014 the party actually gained ground in the Senate \u2014 as working-class white voters largely kept their faith in Mr. Trump\u2019s economic know-how.<\/p>\n
Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated.<\/p>\n
Blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, seriously doubting Mr. Trump\u2019s handling of the economy. A review of polling by The New York Times shows an extraordinary swing on that issue among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Then, working-class white voters approved of his management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 to more than 30 points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Mr. Trump\u2019s approval on the economy has dropped across practically every group. But his cratering support among a loyal demographic that has served as the foundation of his political coalition for a decade has the potential to be among the most consequential developments of 2026, according to interviews with strategists in both parties who are involved in the midterms.<\/p>\n
Polls now regularly show that a majority of white voters who did not graduate from college no longer approve of Mr. Trump\u2019s handling of the economy. Examples of his low ratings include polls from Fox News (33 percent<\/a> approval), CBS News (39 percent<\/a>), NPR\/PBS\/Marist (40 percent<\/a>), CNN (43 percent<\/a>) and The New York Times\/Siena College (47 percent<\/a>).<\/p>\n In other words, he has lost the faith of his most loyal supporters on the year\u2019s most pressing issue.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump\u2019s advisers are actively pressing to shore up support, trying to sell policies in last year\u2019s tax cut package. The Treasury Department this month released a new report<\/a> detailing how workers benefited from the tax bill. And then this past week, Mr. Trump\u2019s $350 million super PAC, MAGA Inc., put out its very first statement since the 2024 election. The topic was telling: how tax cuts specifically helped the working and middle class.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cIt\u2019s working-class voters who are not happy with the Republican Party, and they may not come out and vote,\u201d John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has worked for Mr. Trump for years, warned in an interview. He said he had seen backsliding of Mr. Trump\u2019s gains in 2024 among working-class Black and Hispanic voters, too.<\/p>\n At this point, one of the only groups still supporting him on the economy in polls are Republicans.<\/p>\n Democrats are moving to capitalize, drawing up plans to compete in new places that not long ago had seemed too demographically daunting \u2014 more white and rural electorates in states such as Iowa that have trended Republican for years.<\/p>\n The Democratic brand, however, remains deeply tarnished among working-class white voters. Polls show many of them have not yet moved all the way toward saying they will vote for Democrats this fall.<\/p>\n Alex Pfeiffer, a MAGA Inc. spokesman, said Democrats would be forced to defend their record on immigration and opposition to the president\u2019s tax bill. \u201cDemocrats will have to explain why they voted to take more money from tipped and overtime workers, as well as seniors on Social Security,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Yet even a more muted turnout from blue-collar white voters, who voted more than two to one for Mr. Trump in 2024, could imperil his party\u2019s chances in November.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s critical,\u201d Mr. McLaughlin, the Trump pollster, said of mobilizing the white working class. \u201cIf they don\u2019t, we lose the House and the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Trump stormed back to power in 2024 promising to stop illegal immigration, tame inflation and rev up the economy. He won 66 percent of white, blue-collar votes, according to exit polling<\/a> \u2014 the exact share<\/a> he received in his first election in 2016.<\/p>\n Yet in the months since his second inauguration, Mr. Trump\u2019s pursuit of tariffs; persistently high prices for gas and groceries; his focus on foreign affairs, particularly the war in Iran; and ongoing inflation appear to have sapped that support, even as border crossings have plunged.<\/p>\n \u201cThe biggest problem is they have been driven \u2014 and continue to be driven \u2014 by the cost-of-living pressure,\u201d said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster. \u201cPrices, stagnant wages and anxiety over when the next shoe is to drop.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster who worked on former Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019s 2024 campaign, said the change had been striking.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter he started the war in Iran, people in focus groups who had voted for him and were working class were at a loss for words to try to explain or justify this action \u2014 and feel directly impacted by it because of gas prices,\u201d she said. \u201cIn the decade of Trump being in our lives, it feels like a watershed moment of them reckoning with him not being the person they thought he was.\u201d<\/p>\n Tim Spencer, a retired tool and die maker who lives in Pella, Iowa, previously voted for Mr. Trump, but higher gas prices are making him feel squeezed. That along with the president\u2019s increasingly erratic behavior have left him no longer supporting Mr. Trump.<\/p>\n The cost of filling his Chevy pickup truck has risen to around $140 from $90, he said. In past summers, Mr. Spencer, 72, and his wife pulled a camper to campsites throughout the Midwest. \u201cWith the price of gas now, it\u2019s an Iowa camper,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Many voters have given Mr. Trump the benefit of the doubt for years, particularly on economic issues. In his first term, they trusted the image he had cultivated as a decisive business executive hosting \u201cThe Apprentice.\u201d They fondly remembered the country\u2019s economy under his watch when he ran again in 2024.<\/p>\n Back in 2018, his party\u2019s losses among Trump voters instead were concentrated in other demographic groups, especially more upscale suburban women<\/a>.<\/p>\n On the eve of the 2018 midterms, Mr. Trump\u2019s approval rating on the economy still stood at 66 percent among white voters without college degrees, according to a CNN poll. That was one reason that, while Republicans lost the House that year, the party still knocked off four Democratic incumbents in the Senate.<\/p>\n This term, Mr. Trump\u2019s approval on the economy \u2014 an issue that strategists in both parties agree is the most pressing of the 2026 elections \u2014 has plunged even deeper than his approval overall.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump\u2019s disapproval on the economy among those same voters was at 57 percent in CNN\u2019s most recent poll<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Surveys that dive more deeply into questions around inflation or the cost of living are even bleaker for the president.<\/p>\n Among blue-collar white voters, Mr. Trump\u2019s approval rating on the cost of living stood at just 36 percent in the Times survey<\/a>. Fox News<\/a> found that just 25 percent approved of his handling of inflation.<\/p>\n \u201cThere were certain things that he had made promises on the campaign trail that just didn\u2019t come to fruition,\u201d said Carl Wallnau, 35, who lives outside Fort Worth. He considers himself more libertarian and voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 based on those promises. \u201cHe was talking about, you know, lowering gas prices. Gas prices are up.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Wallnau has more jobs in the gig economy \u2014 as a stagehand, in a comics store and setting up events \u2014 but described himself as \u201cstruggling to really thrive.\u201d He now plans to vote for a third party in 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cI\u2019m reminded of Bill Clinton,\u201d Mr. Wallnau said. \u201cIt\u2019s the economy, stupid.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats said they were seeing some early signs of success.<\/p>\n Eva Kemp, a strategist with American Bridge, a Democratic group with a super PAC and research arm, has spent recent years laboring to find disillusioned Trump supporters to feature in Democratic ads.<\/p>\n \u201cIt has gotten easier,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n The process involves sitting through focus groups and listening to people air their grievances. \u201cIt almost feels more visceral in their disappointment and their willingness to go against President Trump,\u201d she said, adding that women, in particular, have run out of patience. In one recent focus group of working-class white voters in Iowa, nearly all the women gave Mr. Trump a D or an F. The white men graded him higher.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Some Republican strategists, granted anonymity to discuss their party\u2019s vulnerabilities, said they were seeing the same gender phenomenon among white working-class voters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Democrats don\u2019t need to carry white working-class voters to reclaim power in November. Simply losing them by less could deliver major wins this fall.<\/p>\n In the most recent NPR\/PBS News\/Marist Poll<\/a>, 44 percent of white voters who didn\u2019t graduate from college said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate this year \u2014 up from a meager 30 percent on the eve of the 2018 midterms<\/a>.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump is not helping matters with his dismissive talk about the economic concerns of so many Americans. \u201cI love the inflation,\u201d<\/a> he said in the Oval Office this past week. Previously, he waved off rising gas prices as \u201cpeanuts\u201d and said when speaking about the timing of winding down the war in Iran, \u201cI don\u2019t think about Americans\u2019 financial situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\u2018A watershed moment\u2019<\/h2>\n
\u2018I don\u2019t think about Americans\u2019 financial situation\u2019<\/h2>\n