Who will win Thunder-Spurs Game 7? Who is feeling the pressure? Our staff predictions

The Athletic has live coverage of Spurs vs. Thunder in Game 7 of the 2026 Western Conference finals.

This always felt inevitable.

Of course there would be seven games played between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. NBA fans deserve no less than the full dose of the reigning champs vs. Victor Wembanyama. As our John Hollinger wrote, this matchup looks set to be this generation’s Lakers-Celtics.

So, going into Saturday night’s mammoth Game 7 in Oklahoma City, which will determine who faces the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals, 11 Athletic NBA writers predicted what we might see and who is feeling the pressure.

Who will win Game 7?

The pick: Spurs (6 of 11 votes).

The case for San Antonio…

Mike Vorkunov: Right now the Spurs seem healthier. Who knows what, if anything, the Thunder can get from Jalen Williams in Game 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy but he’s been in a hell in a cell against this Spurs defense. They’ve defended him with a slew of big, fast wings and guards, and Victor Wembanyama on the back line, like a lumberjack match.

Dan Woike: Since the “hard foul” order from Wembanyama, San Antonio has been the more physical team and the Thunder haven’t responded. The fact that no one mustered up any kind of receipt makes me tilt this in San Antonio’s favor.

Jared Weiss: Wembanyama finding his outside shot to unlock things early could be the final adjustment that shifts this series. If that shot is going down, the Thunder don’t have a viable counter to adjust to it. Nobody does. If they sell out to take the shot away, the lane is far too open for the Spurs to take advantage. It’s a big bet to presume Wembanyama will have two complete games in a row, but I’m taking it.

Zach Harper: Wemby won’t talk much now, so I assume he’s hyper-focused.

The case for OKC…

Marcus Thompson II: They’re at home. They have the experience edge. And Wembanyama hasn’t put together consecutive dominant games yet.

Christian Clark: The Thunder in the past two years are 17-3 with a +17.9 point differential at Paycom Center in the postseason.

Joel Lorenzi: The Thunder deserve the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been here before. It’s taken incredible lengths to beat them on their home floor these past two seasons — usually a game-winner or, in this series, double-overtime. While they’ve never needed to find a knockout punch for this caliber of a defense, they’ve historically responded well in Game 7s.

David Aldridge: Institutional Game 7 memory.

Who should be feeling the most Game 7 pressure?

The pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6 of 11 votes). Runners-up: Chet Holmgren; the entire Thunder team (2 votes each).

Why SGA should be feeling the pressure…

Lorenzi: He’s had a fairly good case for being the best player in the world for the past year and change. But Wembanyama is threatening the pecking order, appearing like the best player on the floor in multiple games while the Spurs limit SGA to a degree no team has. Game 7 won’t just decide whether SGA’s title defense falls short. With Jalen Williams impaired and Ajay Mitchell unavailable, an act of heroics in this spot would undoubtedly boost SGA’s legacy.

Woike: He’s the MVP, he’s been in a miserable rhythm and his overall game has been dissected on a national scale.

Jon Krawczynski: It hasn’t been a great series for the two-time MVP. His 24.3 points per game are his lowest average since the 2020 playoffs. He is shooting 38 percent from the field, including 26 percent from 3. All of the playmaking is on his shoulders, but that is the burden of being the MVP. He has to play better for OKC to have a chance.

Vorkunov: It has to be SGA. The playmaking burden is going to be all on him again. J-Dub is hurt. Jared McCain is a sidekick. And SGA has to do it against a team that has flummoxed him for six games. Somebody has to make the points happen for OKC and all arrows are pointing at the back-to-back MVP.

Sam Amick: If SGA can put his finishing touches on this series, outplaying Wemby and the Spurs with the kind of performance befitting his stature, then it’s an all’s-well-that-ends-well sort of scenario. But if Game 7 looks anything like Game 1, when Wemby ruled the day and spoiled SGA’s trophy ceremony, then his place in the league’s power structure will take a serious hit.

Thompson: A two-time MVP will have a hard time living down not showing up in a Game 7.

Other choices…

Jason Jones: Chet Holmgren. He’s an All-Star one of the league’s emerging big men. He’s not expected to post Wembanyama-like stats, but he has to have a bigger impact than he’s had most of the series to give OKC their best chance to win.

Harper: Chet Holmgren. He’s been mostly insignificant and if the Thunder have to make salary decisions down the line, maybe this helps him get shipped to a bad team in a salary dump.

Weiss: The Thunder. This could be their last chance to have the upper hand on the league for a few reasons. First off, the Spurs are likely getting better next season with their development and the vast experience they have gained from this battle. Then there is the public outcry over the Thunder’s perceived flopping, which could shift the way they are officiated in the future. Hopefully, this rivalry remains competitive for a long time, but the Thunder may be the underdog after this Game 7.

Aldridge: The Thunder. Once you are a champion, you want to stay one.

Clark: Luguentz Dort. The Thunder have gotten outscored by 54 points with him on the floor in this series. He’s shot 4 of 22 from 3. I’m sure the Spurs will be content to let him launch from deep. Can he make a few shots?

Who is the X-factor heading into Game 7?

The pick: Dylan Harper (3 of 11 votes). Runner-up: Luke Kornet (2 votes).

The case for Harper…

Woike: He opened the series with a masterpiece and has the kind of physicality and maturity to his game to stand up to this moment.

Clark: The Spurs rookie is a standout. He was sensational in Games 1 and Game 6, and pretty quiet in between. If he plays well, I think San Antonio wins.

Lorenzi: It was his combination of poise and shotmaking, along with Wembanyama’s confidence and production, that sent OKC packing early in Game 6. His order and continuation of the offense allowed San Antonio to keep responding, necessary for a Thunder team that’s shown the capability to conjure answers from almost anywhere.

The other choices…

Harper: Luke Kornet. If the Spurs can survive the non-Wemby minutes, then they can win this game.

Vorkunov: Kornet has struggled this series. How much and how well he plays in Game 7 will matter.

Thompson: Stephon Castle. When he plays well, it impacts both ends and really complements Wemby. The Spurs need Castle to have a big road game.

Jones: De’Aaron Fox. This is the second Game 7 in his career and he’s played through an ankle injury. If there’s a time for the 2023 Clutch Player of the Year to break out, it’s Game 7.

Weiss: Alex Caruso. He has been a scoring machine when the Thunder have won and an offensive ghost when they’ve lost. The Thunder need to win the 3-point battle and his big shooting nights have been what’s kept them afloat.

Krawczynski: OKC’s 3-point shooting. The variance has been a rollercoaster in this series. The Thunder shot 45 percent from deep in a Game 3 win, 18 percent in the Game 4 loss, 44 percent in the Game 5 win and 25 percent in the Game 6 loss. Role players usually shoot better at home, and they’re going to have to. If they shoot it poorly again, it’s hard to see how they win.

Amick: It’s a little unorthodox to go with a superstar in any X-factor discussion, but Wembanyama has been so inconsistent in this series that it’s hard to pick anyone else. When he’s on — engaged, aggressive, and hitting that 3 that he falls in love with from time to time — it feels like he can decide the outcome all by himself. But he has disappeared at times in this series, too, especially on the boards. Wemby will either win the day, and the series, or endure a painful loss that only makes him better.

What is your biggest takeaway from Spurs-Thunder so far?

Krawczynski: This has been the battle I was hoping to see. Yes, the margins have been bigger than I expected, for the most part. But that is what can happen when a great team gets rolling. There have been huge swings back and forth in this series. Two extremely well-coached, prideful squads are throwing punches. I’ve loved watching it.

Vorkunov: This is gonna be so much fun for the next few years. And I’m already thinking about what the next stage of this rivalry looks like next season as the teams inevitably try to level up to beat the other.

Harper: I want this matchup in the playoffs for the next decade. And I want it going seven every time. This is the best matchup in basketball.

Aldridge: I can’t wait until these two teams truly hate each other in a few years. Playing one another for titles year after year does that.

Woike: These two teams are miles ahead of the pack in the West.

Clark: Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the league, and his offensive game isn’t that refined yet. He needs to develop a few go-to moves inside the arc. It’s scary how much better he can get when, at 22 years old, he’s already more impactful than anyone else.

Thompson: Wembanyama is a menace.

Jones: Wembanyama’s aggressiveness on offense is the deciding factor. He has to learn how to maintain it consistently.

Lorenzi: No team has ever defended SGA better.

Weiss: After years of everyone focusing on the NBA being all about 3s, we’ve suddenly woken up in a defensive era, which I love. Both of these teams are average shooting teams, but have deep defensive and playmaking depth. These games have been an onslaught of presses, traps and recoveries. It’s been kind of a mess, which is what makes it such a curiosity. The suspense has been real over the course of the series.

Amick: That even with all the stars in this series, the NBA trend of depth being crucial remains intact. Any number of “others” could wind up being the sort of X-factor that makes the difference.

Which West team has the best chance of wedging its way into the OKC-San Antonio tier?

The pick: The Lakers (3 of 11 votes). Also in consideration: Utah, Minnesota, Denver, Dallas, Portland. 

The case for the Lakers…

Woike: If the Lakers can build a fully optimized roster around Luka Dončić, they’ll have the best chance. You have to have an all-world player to have a shot against these teams and Luka and Nikola Jokić are the only two in the West.

Krawczynski: The Lakers have Dončić, play in a city that attracts free agents and have some money to spend with a new, deep-pocketed ownership group. The Wolves have a path as well with Anthony Edwards, but they need to thread a needle with roster changes that will be tricky. The Lakers’ pathway to contention is a little more straightforward.

Clark: I’ll say the Lakers because they have a top-five player in Dončić who’s only 27 years old. There is a lot of work to do to improve the roster around him, but I expect the Lakers to be aggressive this next year.

The other choices…

Aldridge: Utah. Adding AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson raises the ceiling for a team that has lots of promising young talent (Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler) and needs a centerpiece.

Vorkunov: The Utah Jazz. They didn’t tank all that time for nothing. Next year the Jazz will be big, young and dynamic. They get to add the No. 2 pick to Markkanen, Jackson, George and Ace Bailey. They still have more surplus picks left in the holster and an aggressive front office. They’ll have to make a big leap but they should have the talent and the means to get there. It probably won’t come in 2026-27 but if it comes, it’ll happen sooner than you think. (Bonus pick: Don’t overlook the Mavericks here).

Lorenzi: I’m not sure how long it’ll take, but I’ll bet on the Mavericks making a bid at some point.

Harper: Minnesota. This is a good playoff team but it needs to be fully healthy.

Jones: There aren’t any other teams that have the depth of OKC or San Antonio. The Lakers (Dončić) and Minnesota (Edwards) both have superstars with the ability to take over a series. It’ll take a team with that kind of young star to knock off one of these teams.

Weiss: Minnesota and Denver could get there with a retool, but we may have to look to rising franchises like Portland or even Utah as someone who can stake a claim down the road. But for next season, these two teams are looking primed to be the favorites again. Let’s see where Giannis ends up first though.

Amick: I still say Denver. They had a bad finish, and the moves they made last summer to strengthen the roster around Jokić didn’t pan out as they’d hoped. But they still have one of the game’s greats, with an elite talent by his side in Jamal Murray, and will likely make more moves this offseason to try and return to that top tier.