Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, June 11

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June 11, 2026

On June 11, 2026

The Miami Marlins are eyeing a sweep on Thursday afternoon, as they’ll host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just one game over .500 in the 2026 campaign.

Miami dominated the first two games of this series, winning 10-6 on Tuesday and 8-0 on Wednesday, setting up an intriguing series finale. Oddsmakers have the Marlins as -119 favorites to win this game, but they’re going with a bullpen game, starting Tyler Phillips (2.08 ERA) for just the third time this season.

The D-Backs will counter with veteran Merrill Kelly, who has yet to find his footing in the 2026 season. Kelly has a 5.71 ERA and his advanced numbers are even worse.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s matinee matchup.

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+158)
Marlins +1.5 (-192)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: -102
Marlins: -119

Total

8.5 (Over -119/Under -102)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (5-4, 5.71 ERA)
Miami: Tyler Phillips (0-1, 2.08 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 11
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: loanDepot park
How to Watch (TV): DBACKS.TV/Marlins.TV
Diamondbacks record: 34-33
Marlins record: 33-35

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+415)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Carroll is worth a look at this price:

Arizona Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll has been hot as of late, hitting three home runs over the last week (six games), posting a 1.137 OPS in the process.

Now, he takes on the Miami Marlins and opener Tyler Phillips. Miami has a solid bullpen ERA (3.58) in the 2026 season, but using a bunch of arms could bode well for Carroll, who has 11 home runs in 2026.

Carroll has more homers against right-handed pitching (nine), but he’s hitting an insane .410 against lefties. So, the D-Backs star is pretty matchup proof this season.

He may be undervalued at this price given his recent hot stretch.

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

The Marlins are going with a bullpen game in this matchup, as Phillips only has one outing in the 2026 season where he’s gotten through five innings. Still, the righty ranks in the 55th percentile in expected ERA, the 68th percentile in barrel percentage and the 73rd percentile in hard-hit percentage.

The Miami bullpen behind him has been really solid, posting a 3.58 ERA in the 2026 campaign. So, the Marlins deserve to be favored at home, where they are 22-16 straight up this season.

Kelly got off to a rough start in 2026, but he lowered his ERA from 9.95 to 5.06 over the month of May. The problem? He was rocked for seven runs in his last start and ranks in the first percentile in MLB in expected ERA (7.65) and expected batting average against (.311).

Miami has scored 18 runs in the first two games of this series, and I expect it to get to Kelly on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-119 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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